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class=headerLarge><FONT color=#000000 size=3 face=Calibri><STRONG>New survey
shows (Highlighted):</STRONG></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV
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class=headerLarge><FONT color=#000000 size=3 face=Calibri><STRONG>Majority of
californians favors change in 2/3rds rule for
budget</STRONG></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV
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class=headerLarge><FONT color=#000000 size=3
face=Calibri><STRONG>Shwarzenegger and Legislarture's approval rating drop
further</STRONG> </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
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class=headerLarge><A
href="http://www.ppic.org/main/pressrelease.asp?i=993">http://www.ppic.org/main/pressrelease.asp?i=993</A></SPAN></DIV>
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class=headerLarge>PRESS RELEASE</SPAN></DIV>
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class=headerLarge>Public Policy Institute of california</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV
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<P
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class=pubTitle>Whitman Leading, But Most GOP Voters
Undecided</SPAN><BR><BR><SPAN
style="LINE-HEIGHT: 15px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Arial Black'; COLOR: rgb(153,153,153); FONT-SIZE: 12px"
class=subHeadSmall>Brown Tops Republicans in Potential Matchups—But Falls
Short of Majority</SPAN></P>
<HR
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SIZE=1 noShade>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"
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<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">SAN
FRANCISCO, December 16, 2009—Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman leads the field
among likely voters in the GOP gubernatorial primary with 32 percent
support, compared to 12 percent for former Congressman Tom Campbell and 8
percent for state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. But the highest
percentage of likely GOP voters—44 percent—is undecided, according to a
statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of
California (PPIC) with funding from The James Irvine Foundation.</P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">In
hypothetical head-to-head matchups for the November general election, the
prospective Democratic candidate and current state Attorney General Jerry
Brown bests all three Republicans. But he does so with less than majority
support.</P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Six
months before the gubernatorial primary, the four major party candidates
expected to be on the ballot are attracting little enthusiasm or attention
among Californians likely to vote. Only 10 percent of likely voters are
very closely following news about the candidates, and 33 percent are
fairly closely following the news (36% not too closely, 20% not at all
closely). Just 32 percent of likely voters are satisfied with their
choices of candidates in the primary, and 42 percent are not (26% don’t
know). Democrats are more likely to express satisfaction (38%) than
independents (29%) or Republicans (25%). But across parties and
ideological groups, more likely voters are unsatisfied with their choices
than satisfied.</P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">"Voters
have more immediate concerns than who is going to be the next governor,”
says Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO. "Despite all the advertising
in this early stage of the campaign, Republican primary voters are more
likely to say they are undecided than to favor one of the three GOP
candidates. At the same time, the Democrats’ likely candidate falls short
of majority support when matched up against the Republican
contenders.”</P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><STRONG>Republicans
Fail To Make Big Impression, and Brown Makes a Mixed One</STRONG></P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">At
least half of likely voters across parties and demographic groups don’t
know enough about Whitman to have an opinion about her or haven’t heard of
her. Her highest favorability ratings are among Republicans, independents,
and conservatives (28% of each) and men (27%). Sixty-eight percent of
women are unable to give an opinion of Whitman—the only woman in the
race—compared to 51 percent of men. Seventy percent of likely voters have
no opinion of Campbell. His highest ratings are among Republicans (21%),
San Francisco Bay Area likely voters (24%), men (20%), those with
household incomes of at least $80,000 (20%), and renters (21%).
Seventy-three percent of likely voters have no opinion of Poizner, who has
no more than a 12 percent favorability rating in any group.</P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Opinion
is evenly divided on Brown (35% favorable, 36% unfavorable). A majority of
Democratic likely voters (52%) have a favorable opinion of him, a majority
of Republicans (59%) have an unfavorable one, and independents lean toward
unfavorable (39% unfavorable, 34% favorable). A sizeable 69 percent of
likely voters under age 35 cannot give an opinion of the former two-term
governor.</P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">In
potential November matchups, Brown leads Whitman by 6 points (43% to 37%),
Campbell by 12 (46% to 34%), and Poizner by 16 (47% to 31%) among likely
voters. Partisan preferences are key in these leads. Independent likely
voters are divided in a race between Whitman (37%) and Brown (36%), and
they support Brown over Campbell (40% to 25%) and Poizner (42% to 23%).
Among female likely voters, Brown has a 12-point lead over Whitman, a
21-point lead over Campbell, and a 22-point lead over Poizner.</P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><STRONG>More
Voters Prefer Candidates To Raise Money Than Spend Their Own</STRONG></P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">What
qualities do likely voters value in a candidate for statewide office? Half
(49%) view a candidate more positively for using mostly money from
supporters in a campaign, and 39 percent hold a more positive view of a
candidate who uses his or her own money. Pluralities of Republicans (55%),
independents (50%), and Democrats (46%) view a candidate who uses
supporters’ money more positively.</P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">California’s
likely voters are evenly split on whether it’s more important for a
candidate to have experience in elected office (43%) or running a business
(43%). The fault lines are ideological and political, with Democrats (60%)
and liberals (63%) valuing experience in office, and Republicans (61%) and
conservatives (61%) valuing experience in business.</P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><STRONG>Two-thirds
Vote on Budget, Gay Marriage Are Most Important Issues</STRONG></P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">At
a time when many initiatives are circulating to qualify for the 2010
ballots, the survey asked likely voters to assess the importance of a
half-dozen issues that may be up for a vote. Which issues are viewed as
very important—either because they are favored or opposed?</P>
<UL>
<LI><STRONG><FONT size=3>Lowering the vote requirement for the
legislature to pass a state budget: 54 percent</FONT></STRONG></LI>
<LI>Allowing same-sex couples to marry in California: 51 percent</LI>
<LI>Allowing voters to select any candidate, regardless of party, in
state primaries: 47 percent</LI>
<LI>Legalizing marijuana in California: 38 percent</LI>
<LI>Allowing voters to call a constitutional convention in California:
35 percent</LI>
<LI>Allowing public funding of statewide campaigns in California: 32
percent</LI></UL>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Given
the importance likely voters place on the issue of lowering the
legislative threshold to pass a state budget, it’s not surprising that 88
percent of them call the budget situation a big problem. When asked how
they would prefer the state to deal with a multibillion-dollar gap between
revenues and spending, 44 percent say mostly through spending cuts, while
39 percent would prefer a mix of spending cuts and tax increases. Since
January, the preference for dealing with the budget gap mainly through
cuts has increased 12 points (32%) among likely voters and for the mixed
approach has declined 9 points (48%).</P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">In
the aftermath of the legislature’s passage of a package of bills designed
to address the state’s water crisis, the survey asked about the $11.1
billion water bond measure that is part of the package and is slated to be
on the November ballot. How important is it that voters pass the measure?
Most likely voters say it is very important (43%) or somewhat important
(31%).</P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><STRONG>61%
Approve of Obama—Fewer Back Economic, Health Care, Afghan
Plans</STRONG></P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Turning
to Californians’ assessments of federal leaders and issues, most
Californians (61%) approve of the way President Obama is handling his
job—similar to their views in September (63%) and more approving than
adults nationwide, according to a CBS News/<EM>New York Times</EM><SPAN
class=Apple-converted-space> </SPAN>poll (50% approve, 39%
disapprove). Californians are much more approving of Obama’s performance
than they are of Congress. They give Congress a 38 percent approval
rating, also similar to September (39%). About half (51%) approve of the
job their own member of the U.S. House of Representatives is doing, a
5-point drop from September (56%).</P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">But
California residents are less satisfied with Obama’s handling of the
economy. Only 31 percent say his economic policies have made economic
conditions better. By comparison, 42 percent say his policies have made no
difference and 21 percent say they’ve made economic conditions worse.
Californians are split over whether the federal government’s response to
the financial crisis will help the state, with 46 percent saying it will
and the same percentage saying it will not. And although a majority of
California residents were satisfied with the first federal stimulus
package, they are less willing to support more spending to stimulate the
economy: just 39 percent would support it, and 53 percent would oppose
it.</P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Half
of Californians support (52% vs. 39% oppose) proposed changes to the
health care system—a top domestic priority for Obama— given what they know
about the legislation. Their views have changed little since September
(51% support, 38% oppose). Californians’ support declines sharply with age
and is lowest among those 65 and older (42%). Californians are more
supportive (61% vs. 33% oppose) of creating a government health insurance
plan to compete with private insurers, as they were in September (62%
support, 33% oppose).</P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">Californians
take a pessimistic view of the U.S. military effort in Afghanistan. Just 6
percent say things are going very well, with 26 percent saying they are
going fairly well and the majority saying things are going not too well
(32%) or not at all well (29%). A plurality (44%) say U.S. troops in
Afghanistan should be decreased, while just 33 percent say they should be
increased.</P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">In
the wake of Obama’s December 1 speech announcing an increase in U.S.
troops and setting a timetable for withdrawal, Californians are divided on
his plan: 49 percent favor it and 45 percent are opposed. The results are
similar to Americans nationwide in a<SPAN
class=Apple-converted-space> </SPAN><EM>USA Today</EM>/Gallup poll
(51% favor, 40% oppose). Across parties, a majority of Democrats (55%)
favor the president’s plan, Republicans (54%) oppose it, and independents
are split (46% favor, 46% oppose).</P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><STRONG>More
Key Findings</STRONG></P>
<UL>
<LI><STRONG>Jobs, economy dwarf other issues</STRONG><SPAN
class=Apple-converted-space> </SPAN>—page 13<BR>As it has since
January 2008, jobs and the economy top the list of Californians’
concerns, with 61 percent calling it the most important issue facing the
state in an open-ended question. The state budget, deficit, and taxes
come in a distant second (13%), and water (2%) is further down the
list.</LI>
<LI><STRONG>Governor, legislature approval ratings at record
lows</STRONG><SPAN class=Apple-converted-space> </SPAN>—page
15<BR><FONT size=3><STRONG>Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s approval
rating of 27 percent sinks to a new low among all adults. It’s been at
40 percent or below since August 2008. The legislature’s approval rating
is lower still and matches its record of 17 percent, first recorded in
July 2009.</STRONG></FONT></LI>
<LI><STRONG>For Californians, the recession is still up close and
personal</STRONG><SPAN class=Apple-converted-space> </SPAN>—pages
14, 22, and 23<BR>Reports about the end of the recession are
unconvincing to most Californians: 91 percent say the state is in a
recession and 60 percent say it is a serious one. Half of the state’s
residents are very (34%) or somewhat (16%) concerned that they or
someone in their family will lose a job in the next year, and another 11
percent volunteer that their family has already experienced job loss.
And 65 percent of residents say they are very (45%) or somewhat (20%)
concerned that they will not have enough money to pay the rent or
mortgage. Nevertheless, 53 percent expect their financial situation to
improve a lot (6%) or some (47%) over the next year.</LI></UL>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><STRONG>ABOUT
THE SURVEY</STRONG></P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">The
PPIC Statewide Survey has provided policymakers, the media, and the
general public with objective information on the perceptions, opinions,
and public policy preferences of California residents since 1998. This
survey is part of a series that examines the social, economic, and
political trends that influence public policy preferences and ballot
choices. It is supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation.
Findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,004 California adult
residents interviewed on landlines and cell phones from December 1–8,
2009. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish, according to
respondents’ preferences. The sampling error is ±2 percent for all adults,
±3 percent for the 963 likely voters, and ±5 percent for the 352
Republican primary likely voters. For more information on methodology, see
page 25.</P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><A
style="COLOR: rgb(112,97,35); TEXT-DECORATION: none"
href="http://www.ppic.org/main/bio.asp?i=91">Mark Baldassare</A><SPAN
class=Apple-converted-space> </SPAN>is president and CEO of PPIC,
where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public
Policy. He is founder of the<SPAN
class=Apple-converted-space> </SPAN><A
style="COLOR: rgb(112,97,35); TEXT-DECORATION: none"
href="http://www.ppic.org/main/series.asp?i=12">PPIC Statewide Survey</A>,
which he has directed since 1998.</P>
<P
style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 10px; COLOR: rgb(51,51,51); FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">PPIC
is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California
through independent, objective, nonpartisan research on major economic,
social, and political issues. The institute was established in 1994 with
an endowment from William R. Hewlett. As a private operating foundation,
PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any
local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or
oppose any political parties or candidates for public
office.</P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV></SPAN></SPAN></DIV></BODY></HTML>