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<H1 id=articleTitle class=articleTitle>California's education outlook: huge
classes, shorter school years, less learning</H1><!--subtitle--><!--byline-->
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<P class=bylineaffiliation>Posted: 12/03/2010 05:50:24 PM PST</P></DIV><!--secondary date-->
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<P class=bodytext>After the Legislature opens a special session today to
discuss how to close a $6 billion hole in the current state budget, schools are
likely to endure another big midyear blow. And then comes the really bad news:
the need to reconcile a projected $19.5 billion shortfall for 2011-12, partly by
cutting education.</P>
<P>Here's the likely result: "Schools will become more and more like prisons and
less and less like schools," said David Plank, a professor of education at
Stanford University. "You'll have huge classes, restive young people and
overworked teachers." </P>
<P>Sound drastic? So is the budget crisis.</P>
<P>Soon after he is sworn in next month, Governor-elect Jerry Brown will have to
present a budget for 2011-12, a year that likely will be worse than any that
California schools have endured in modern history. The deficit is so huge that
educators and officials either can't think about it or can't believe it.</P>
<P>That denial stems partly from successive years of cutbacks, when schools made
do and Sacramento staved off disaster with accounting tricks, a bond, temporary
tax increases and Uncle Sam's stimulus funds. Now, even as state tax revenues
continue to plunge, those options are exhausted.</P>
<P>Part of the problem, educators say, stems from Californians' mantra about
education that sounds like a Target slogan: Expect more, pay less.</P>
<P>California already spends nearly the least per-student in the nation on K-12
education, and has </P>among the largest class sizes, and the fewest counselors,
librarians and administrators per student. How much worse could it get?
Possibilities that school officials are raising include:
<P></P>
<P>
<LI>A school year, already trimmed by five days in some districts, shortened by
another week.
<P></P>
<P></P>
<LI>Layoffs of counselors, librarians, athletic directors, coaches -- and an end
to after-school athletics.
<P></P>
<P></P>
<LI>Dozens of districts declaring insolvency.
<P></P>
<P></P>
<LI>The state schools system going into federal receivership.
<P></P>
<P class=bodytext>Besides the $6 billion hole in this year's state budget and a
2011-12 state shortfall pegged at $19.5 billion by the nonpartisan Legislative
Analyst's Office, schools are staring at even more: $1.7 billion the state
deferred from this fiscal year to next. The potential end of billions of dollars
in federal stimulus funds. A $2 billion drop in what the state guarantees
education through the voter-approved Proposition 98.</P>
<P>Edgar Cabral, a policy analyst for the LAO, calls the outlook "dire." Some
districts, he said, may go insolvent.</P>
<P>The immediate reason for the fiscal distress is that tax revenues are down,
while costs -- teachers' salaries, health insurance and utilities -- keep
rising. In addition, California has a "structural deficit" -- its services cost
more than its taxes bring in. And the Legislature's habit of putting off tough
decisions, for example, by deferring payments to school districts, adds to
schools' plight.</P>
<P>If the Legislature doesn't come to agreement in this month's special session,
it will hand off the hard decisions to Brown and a new Legislature convening in
January. With the political difficulty of raising revenues, the state will
likely face more budget cuts. And because K-12 education comprises about 40
percent of state spending, it will be nearly impossible to balance the budget
without inflicting deep cuts in education.</P>
<P>Neither Brown nor many state and school officials want to speculate on how --
and how much -- schools will be cut. </P>
<P>State Sen. Joe Simitian, D-Palo Alto, one of the Legislature's education
experts, said the coming year is "truly scary." For starters, he thinks the
Legislature may simply write off the $1.7 billion it promised to pay schools
next year for costs incurred this year.</P>
<P>And, he said, it may further cut into the school year, as it did before,
allowing districts to trim the 180-day school year by five more days, to 170
days.</P>
<P>The Legislature passing off tough decisions, like whether to shorten the
school year, angers local educators. "If they don't want to fund a 180-day
school year, they should mandate that for everybody," said Stephen McMahon,
president of the San Jose Teachers Association. It's unfair for less-wealthy
districts like San Jose Unified to have to impose unpaid furloughs when wealthy
districts keep the longer school year, he said.</P>
<P>The state also may cut back on the per-student payments to districts, while
extending them some budgetary flexibility to use state moneys where needed
rather than for specific programs such as busing or gifted-and-talented
education.</P>
<P>The budget picture is so grainy that no one has specifics. But supposing a $4
billion cut -- which would be less than half of what education's proportional
share of next year's projected shortfall would be -- districts would lose $644
per student. For San Jose Unified, that comes to a $20.6 million cut to a
district that's already bumped up class sizes, eliminated librarians, music, art
and other programs. </P>
<P>The district's budget chief, Ann Jones, said, "There is no way education can
bear that."</P>
<P>To save enough simply by reducing the school year, the state would have to
cut back to 150 days, said Ron Bennett, president of School Services of
California, which advises school districts. "I think a federal judge would be on
your doorstep if the state of California proposed doing that." </P>
<P>Without additional revenues or other solutions, "We're looking at
scorched-earth kind of policies," he said.</P>
<P>But educators are ever the optimists. Whatever happens, "the sun will come up
tomorrow and kids will come to school," Jones said.</P>
<P>Jerry Kurr, budget chief for the East Side Union High School District, said
school budget officers sometimes say, "We can balance any budget. Just give me a
large tent and a couple of teachers." He notes that the state sets no maximum
class size for high schools.</P>
<P>But however California cuts education, the likely result, Plank of Stanford
said, will be "less and less learning will go
on."</P></LI></DIV></DIV></BODY></HTML>