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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT><BR><FONT size=3>This message was sent
today to world bank staff in the MENA region ...</FONT> <BR><FONT
size=3><BR></FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=1>Subject: <I>Fw: Warden
Message: Possible Extensive Operations in the Southeast.</I><BR>Date:
<I>Mon, 24 Apr 2006 14:24:52 +0000</I></FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2><BR>Dear Colleagues,</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>Yesterday's
news broadcasts and today's papers in Turkey have given</FONT> <BR><FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>extensive coverage to reports that the army is deploying a
significant</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>number of troops to the
Southeast, <B>more precisely some 250,000 which </B></FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2><B>is a</B></FONT> <FONT face=Tahoma size=2><B>quarter to a third of the
army.</B> After the United States, Turkey </FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>has the</FONT> <FONT face=Tahoma size=2>second largest army in
NATO.</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>The above could be a significant
indication <B>that the army is getting </B></FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2><B>ready</B></FONT> <FONT face=Tahoma size=2><B>to launch a major spring
operation against the PKK/KONGRA-GEL.</B> Some </FONT><BR><FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>sources</FONT> <FONT face=Tahoma size=2>believe <B>these
would indeed be the biggest ever operations against the</B></FONT> <BR><FONT
face=Tahoma size=2><B>PKK/KONGRA-GEL.</B> According to newspaper reports,
troops from Kayseri </FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>have</FONT> <FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>been deployed to Yüksekova and ?emdinli, Hakkari province,
near the borders</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>with Iran and Iraq.
Troops from Isparta have been deployed to Çukurca, </FONT><BR><FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>also</FONT> <FONT face=Tahoma size=2>in Hakkari province, on
the border with Iraq. A division from Bolu </FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>was</FONT> <FONT face=Tahoma size=2>reported to have been deployed to
??rnak which is close to the main Habur</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>border-crossing to Iraq. Despite some newspaper reports which
reject </FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>these</FONT> <FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>claims, other reports say that yesterday, 20 April 2006, early in
the</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>morning, tanks, artillery, armoured
vehicles and ammunition were forwarded</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>to
the Iraqi border. It was also reported that the Land Forces
Commander</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>General Yasar Büyükanit will go to
the region, more specifically to ??rnak.</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>The Ak?am daily newspaper says that Turkey would bargain for a
cross-border</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>operation against the
PKK/KONGRA-GEL during the visit to Turkey on 26 April</FONT> <BR><FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. According to
the same </FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>newspaper,</FONT> <FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>the Secretary of State will be given the message that since the US is
not</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>intervening to stop the PKK/KONGRA-GEL
terrorism, it should leave this </FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>task</FONT>
<FONT face=Tahoma size=2>to Turkey. NTV today, however, reported that the
Turkish authorities </FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>have</FONT> <FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>declared that they will not make any major move before this
has been cleared</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>with the Secretary of
State. They also assured that there would be </FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>no</FONT> <FONT face=Tahoma size=2>cross-border operations or hot pursuit
into Iraq.</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2><B>We request all staff to
keep the above in mind, particularly staff who </B></FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2><B>are</B></FONT> <FONT face=Tahoma size=2><B>already in or planning to
go to the Southeast in the near future. Staff </B></FONT><BR><FONT
face=Tahoma size=2><B>in</B></FONT> <FONT face=Tahoma size=2><B>the Southeast
should be extra vigilant and check carefully with the security</B></FONT>
<BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2><B>forces in the area before going on any mission
outside their duty station.</B></FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>For
further information, please also see the below article from today's</FONT>
<BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>Turkish Press Scanner.</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>Murat Yetkin: The Army Confirms Reports About Operations In
the Southeast</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>General Staff sources have
confirmed reports that there were intensive</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>operations against PKK at the Turkish borders with Iran and Iraq,
Radikal</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>columnist Murat Yetkin says. An
anonymous General Staff official is quoted</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>as saying that additional troops had been deployed in the region and
that</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>the operations would continue.</FONT>
<BR><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>Yesterday Turkish daily Posta announced that
the army was planning to start</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>operations
with the participation of 250,000 troops and that the operations</FONT>
<BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>would be orchestrated from ??rnak. General Staff
sources say that the</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>location of the Land
Forces headquarters will not change, but add that </FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>the</FONT> <FONT face=Tahoma size=2>operation command center would be
located in the region. They add that </FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>the</FONT> <FONT face=Tahoma size=2>operations were planned by Land
Forces Staff Commander General Ergin Saygun</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>and would be headed by Land Forces Commander General Ya?ar
Büyükan?t.</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>General ?ükrü Sar????k's
Second Army is to play a key role in the</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>operations, but troops from various parts of the country have been moved
</FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>to</FONT> <FONT face=Tahoma size=2>the
Southeast for the operations, the sources add. The observer notes that</FONT>
<BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>usually the General Staff was not confirming
reports about transfers of</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>troops.</FONT>
<BR><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>The attitudes of the General Staff give clues
about the scope of the</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>operations, the
writer notes. He says that the new operation in the</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>Southeast could be bigger than Operation Sledgehammer launched in 1997.
</FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>This</FONT> <FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>operation was the biggest campaign carried out by the Turkish army since
</FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>the</FONT> <FONT face=Tahoma size=2>founding
of the Turkish Republic and it included cross-border actions in</FONT> <BR><FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>Northern Iraq.</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2><B>It
is not clear whether the new operation will stretch to Northern Iraq.</B></FONT>
<BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>Nevertheless, anonymous sources say that the
measures undertaken at the</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>Iraqi border were
similar to the measures in the previous operation, the</FONT> <BR><FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>writer reports.</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>Specialists say that satellite information given to Turkey by the US
had</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>played an important role for
Sledgehammer Operation in 1997. They add that</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>operation with the US was needed for such a big operation in Iraq.
The</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>writer says that General Staff
<B>confirmation of reports about a big-scale</B></FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2><B>operation had come on the eve of US Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice's</B></FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2><B>trip to Turkey.</B></FONT>
<BR><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>The writer links the developments to the visits
of US national security</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>adviser Stephen
Hadley last September, CIA director Porter Goss in December</FONT> <BR><FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Peter
Pace last month.</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>On March 23 Pace met Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?an and Turkish Chief</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>of the General Staff General Hilmi Özkök in Ankara.</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>On March 24 Land Forces Commander Büyükan?t was invited to
meet Erdo?an. </FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>The</FONT> s<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>ame day Özkök announced that the meeting had focused on internal
security.</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>It was not announced whether the
Prime Minister had pushed the button for</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>the
operation during this meeting or not. Nevertheless, the writer says
</FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>that</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>the
decision about the operation must have been adopted in the autumn and</FONT>
<BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>that the preparations had taken months.</FONT>
<BR><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>He adds that the preparations were linked to
the preparations of a new</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>anti-terror law,
to the revival of the High Board for Combating Terrorism</FONT> <BR><FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>and the plans for the establishment of a special Prime
Ministry General</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>Directorate for Security to
coordinate the fight against terrorism.</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>The writer says that the operations in the Southeast will probably reach
</FONT><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>its</FONT> <FONT face=Tahoma size=2>highest
point when the new anti-terror bill is approved by parliament and</FONT>
<BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>ratified by President Ahmet Necdet Sezer.</FONT>
<BR><BR><BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>We are following the situation closely and
will revert if and when we get</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>any further
substantial information.</FONT> <BR><BR><BR></DIV><BR>
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