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<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 17pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
class=531554321-19042005><FONT face=Perpetua>Hello ...</FONT></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 17pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
class=531554321-19042005><FONT face=Perpetua>sorry I've been out of Sheffield,
or otherwise out of action ... but now I'm back, beginning with a
col</FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 17pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
class=531554321-19042005><FONT face=Perpetua>lection of articles, the first from
The Militant, the rest from the Financial Times.</FONT></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 17pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
class=531554321-19042005><FONT face=Perpetua></FONT></SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 17pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
class=531554321-19042005><FONT face=Perpetua>greetings!</FONT></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 17pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
class=531554321-19042005><FONT face=Perpetua></FONT></SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 17pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
class=531554321-19042005><FONT face=Perpetua>JS</FONT></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 17pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
class=531554321-19042005><FONT face=Perpetua></FONT></SPAN></SPAN> </P>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 17pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
class=531554321-19042005><FONT
face=Perpetua></FONT></SPAN></SPAN> </P><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 17pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
class=531554321-19042005>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 17pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><FONT
face=Perpetua>Contents<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns =
"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><o:p><FONT face=Perpetua
size=3> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN
style="mso-no-proof: yes"><A href="outbind://2/#_Toc101716007"><FONT
size=3><FONT face=Perpetua>Rice, Rumsfeld: Venezuela in U.S. gunsights<SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"><SPAN
style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen">1</SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"></SPAN></FONT></FONT></A></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN
style="mso-no-proof: yes"><A href="outbind://2/#_Toc101716008"><FONT
size=3><FONT face=Perpetua>Alliances with China and Venezuela bolster Cuba<SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"><SPAN
style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted">. </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen">2</SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"></SPAN></FONT></FONT></A></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN
style="mso-no-proof: yes"><A href="outbind://2/#_Toc101716009"><FONT
size=3><FONT face=Perpetua>US in new crackdown on exports to Cuba<SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"><SPAN
style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted">. </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen">2</SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"></SPAN></FONT></FONT></A></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN
style="mso-no-proof: yes"><A href="outbind://2/#_Toc101716010"><FONT
size=3><FONT face=Perpetua>Farc poised for new battle in long war<SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"><SPAN
style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted">. </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen">3</SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"></SPAN></FONT></FONT></A></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN
style="mso-no-proof: yes"><A href="outbind://2/#_Toc101716011"><FONT
size=3><FONT face=Perpetua>'El Loco' back in Ecuador, with a promise of
revolution<SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"><SPAN
style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted">. </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen">4</SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"></SPAN></FONT></FONT></A></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN
style="mso-no-proof: yes"><A href="outbind://2/#_Toc101716012"><FONT
size=3><FONT face=Perpetua>Chile leader aims to woo Chávez over top OAS
post<SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"><SPAN
style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen">5</SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"></SPAN></FONT></FONT></A></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN
style="mso-no-proof: yes"><A href="outbind://2/#_Toc101716013"><FONT
size=3><FONT face=Perpetua>By Andy Webb-Vidal in Caracas<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Published: April 19 2005<SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"><SPAN
style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted">. </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen">5</SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"></SPAN></FONT></FONT></A></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN
style="mso-no-proof: yes"><A href="outbind://2/#_Toc101716014"><FONT
size=3><FONT face=Perpetua>Argentina still in hostile territory<SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"><SPAN
style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted">. </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen">5</SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"></SPAN></FONT></FONT></A></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN
style="mso-no-proof: yes"><A href="outbind://2/#_Toc101716015"><FONT
size=3><FONT face=Perpetua>Chile leader aims to woo Chávez over top OAS
post<SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"><SPAN
style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen">6</SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"></SPAN></FONT></FONT></A></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN class=MsoHyperlink><SPAN
style="mso-no-proof: yes"><A href="outbind://2/#_Toc101716016"><FONT
face=Perpetua><FONT size=3>Castro seeks justice over fugitive bomber<SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"><SPAN
style="mso-tab-count: 1 dotted">. </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen">7</SPAN><SPAN
style="DISPLAY: none; COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none; mso-hide: screen"></SPAN></FONT></FONT></A></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt"><o:p><FONT
size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><A
name=_Toc101716007><SPAN class=Heading1Char><SPAN
style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><FONT face=Arial size=3>Rice, Rumsfeld:
</FONT></SPAN></SPAN></A><FONT size=3><FONT face=Arial><?xml:namespace prefix =
st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:country-region
w:st="on"><SPAN style="mso-bookmark: _Toc101716007"><SPAN
class=Heading1Char><SPAN
style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB">Venezuela</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></st1:country-region><SPAN
style="mso-bookmark: _Toc101716007"><SPAN class=Heading1Char><SPAN
style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"> in <st1:country-region
w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region>
gunsights</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></FONT></FONT><SPAN class=Heading1Char><SPAN
style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><FONT face=Arial size=3>
<BR></FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"> <BR><!-- Put text above here -->BY
BRIAN WILLIAMS <BR>In a lengthy interview on <st1:country-region
w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region> foreign policy published in the March 25
<st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State> Post, <st1:country-region
w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region> secretary of state Condoleezza Rice spoke
about <st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State>’s hostile course toward the
government of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Venezuela</st1:country-region></st1:place>. During a news conference
in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Brazil</st1:country-region> two days earlier,
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> secretary of defense Donald
Rumsfeld said the imminent purchase of 100,000 AK-47 rifles by the Venezuelan
military is a threat to “the hemisphere.” <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Rice
also touched on the <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region>
rulers’ inability to make much headway in promoting counterrevolutionary forces
inside <st1:country-region w:st="on">Cuba</st1:country-region>, which is unlike
what <st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State> has been able to organize in
former Soviet republics such as <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Kyrgyzstan</st1:country-region> or <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Ukraine</st1:place></st1:country-region>.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">“When
it comes to <st1:country-region w:st="on">Venezuela</st1:country-region> we have
our differences,” said Rice, who has described Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez
as a “negative force” in <st1:place w:st="on">Latin America</st1:place>.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">In
response to a question about whether <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Venezuela</st1:country-region> is interfering with the affairs of its
neighbors, Rice asserted, “I think there are very strong signs that there have
been problems with <st1:country-region w:st="on">Colombia</st1:country-region>
and there have been problems with others and, of course, <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Venezuela</st1:place></st1:country-region> has a
very close relationship with [Cuban president Fidel] Castro.”
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Turning
to <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region> policy toward
<st1:country-region w:st="on">Cuba</st1:country-region>, Rice said, “The problem
with <st1:country-region w:st="on">Cuba</st1:country-region> is that there isn’t
much room for the engagement really of whatever may be bubbling in
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Cuba</st1:place></st1:country-region>. There just isn’t much room. And
what room there is, like the couple of projects that have come up over the last
couple of years, Castro has managed to cut off.” <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">“So
our view has been,” she continued, “that somehow engaging Cuba is going to have
an impact on that domestic structure is just, there’s no evidence that that is
going to be the case…. It’s true that they have better relations with
<st1:country-region w:st="on">Venezuela</st1:country-region>, but other than the
personal relationship between Fidel Castro and Hugo Chávez, I’m not really sure
what <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Cuba</st1:place></st1:country-region> has to give to the Venezuelan
people. We’ll see.” <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Two
days earlier at a news conference held in <st1:City
w:st="on">Brasilia</st1:City>, the Brazilian capital, Secretary of Defense
Donald Rumsfeld expressed his growing concerns about the Venezuelan government’s
plans to buy 100,000 assault rifles from <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Russia</st1:place></st1:country-region>. “I can’t
imagine what’s going to happen to 100,000 AK-47s,” he said. “I can’t imagine why
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Venezuela</st1:place></st1:country-region> needs 100,000 AK-47s. I
just hope that, personally hope, that it doesn’t happen… I can’t imagine that if
it did happen, that it would be good for the hemisphere.” <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">In
response to mounting criticism from <st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State>,
the government of <st1:country-region w:st="on">Venezuela</st1:country-region>
has warned about possible <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> aggression toward the country
and has responded by taking steps to upgrade the country’s military and expand
local popular defense units. In addition to the assault rifles, <st1:City
w:st="on">Caracas</st1:City> has agreed to buy at least 10 military helicopters
from <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Russia</st1:place></st1:country-region> and is considering updating
its air force with Russian MIG-29’s. Chávez has also expressed interest in
buying as many as 24 Super Tucano patrol planes from the Brazilian jet maker
Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica, or Embraer, according to a March 24 New York
Times article. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">In
a similar approach, the conservative magazine National Review featured a photo
of Castro and Chávez on the front cover of its April 11 edition with the
headline, “The Axis of Evil… <st1:place w:st="on">Western Hemisphere</st1:place>
version.” The related article is authored by Otto Reich, former assistant
secretary of state for the <st1:place w:st="on">Western Hemisphere</st1:place>
and member of the National Security Council between 2001 and 2004.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Many
Venezuelan capitalists and their <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> allies have been angered by the
passage of a series of laws beginning in late 2001. These include agrarian
reform legislation, a bill strengthening state control of the country’s oil
resources, and a law that includes protections for artisan fishermen and
restrictions on big fishing firms. The struggles by workers and peasants to
implement these measures and push for others that would result in land
ownership, jobs, and more democratic rights have struck fear in the hearts of
most of the bourgeoisie in <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Venezuela</st1:country-region> and its allies in the
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">United
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>. Local capitalists and landlords, with
<st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State>’s backing, have also protested the
normalization of relations between <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Venezuela</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Cuba</st1:place></st1:country-region> and the
presence of more than 20,000 Cuban volunteer doctors, literacy teachers, and
agricultural technicians in the country. <BR> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<H1 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm 3pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt"><o:p><FONT
size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></H1>
<H1 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm 3pt"><A name=_Toc101716008><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt"><FONT
size=3>Alliances with China and Venezuela bolster Cuba</FONT></SPAN></A><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></H1>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">By
Marc Frank in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City
w:st="on">Havana</st1:City></st1:place> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Financial
Times, April 7 2005 </SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><st1:country-region
w:st="on"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Cuba</SPAN></st1:country-region><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">'s
new alliances with resource-hungry <st1:country-region
w:st="on">China</st1:country-region> and oil-rich <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Venezuela</st1:country-region> and growing state control of the
economy are finally allowing it to pull out of the gruelling crisis caused by
the collapse of the <st1:place w:st="on">Soviet Union</st1:place> in the
1990s.</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">That,
at least, is the message that an increasingly optimistic President Fidel Castro
has taken to delivering in weekly television broadcasts. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">And
according to Francisco Soberón, the president of the central bank, the improved
prospects are based on sound economics and the decision last month to revalue
the peso was fully justified.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">“The
most important sectors of the economy, with the exception of sugar, are doing
well and we all know the dollar is not,” Mr Soberón told the FT. He said tourism
was up 7 per cent last year, high prices for nickel, <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Cuba</st1:country-region></st1:place>'s
top export, appeared solid, and 40 years of investment in human capital, such as
medical personnel, were bringing in significant revenues. Venezuela supplies
cheap oil in exchange for medical and other services in a deal that could be
worth as much as $750m (€584m, £513m) a year. <st1:country-region
w:st="on">China</st1:country-region> recently agreed to plough $500m into the
nickel industry and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Canada</st1:country-region></st1:place>'s Sherritt International
$250m. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">“The
balance of payments current account was positive in 2004, for the first time
since 1993,” Mr Soberón said, crediting in part better control of resources. But
he did not give figures.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">According
to separate government sources, the surplus was $176m compared with the deficits
of $277m in 2002 and $132m in 2003. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><st1:country-region
w:st="on"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Cuba</SPAN></st1:country-region><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">,
with a long line of creditors waiting to be paid some $13bn, and behind on many
short-term loans, has not published current account information since 2001,
though some information is provided to the UN Economic Commission for <st1:place
w:st="on">Latin America</st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Mr
Soberón said the revaluation of the peso was part of a well thought-out
strategy. The traditional peso in which Cubans receive their wages was revalued
by 7 per cent, bringing its value to 25 to the dollar. The convertible peso, a
parallel local currency that is pegged one to one against the dollar (which was
removed from legal circulation five months ago), will be revalued by 8 per cent
on Saturday. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Mr
Soberón said <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Cuba</st1:country-region></st1:place> had begun to change course in
July 2003 when the government started reversing 1990s market-oriented reforms by
recentralising foreign exchange operations and forcing state-run companies to
use the convertible peso. “I am optimistic our currencies will continue to
gradually gain strength,” said Mr Soberón. Many foreign observers and even some
Cuban economists argue that constant changes in monetary and regulatory policy
are depressing productivity at a time when the sugar and other agricultural
sectors are reeling under the worst drought in a century. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Responding
to business complaints that recentralisation has created new bureaucratic
hurdles and slowed economic activity, Mr Soberón said the problems would be
sorted out. “I would obviously be an irrational person not to expect problems
[when] such a big change in economic policy is put into practice and that delays
and irregularities would annoy companies.”<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">The
peso revaluation is also designed to reduce inequalities associated with the
legalisation of the dollar a decade ago. Cubans are paid an average 260 pesos a
month plus subsidised food and services. But they must use state-run hard
currency stores for some essentials, such as cleaning supplies and cooking oil,
which are priced in convertible pesos. About 60 per cent of the 11m inhabitants
have some access to hard currency but the rest must exchange some of their
earnings to convertible pesos. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Mr
Soberón said that “an adjustment in purchasing power” was under way, reinforcing
Mr Castro's message. Cubans are told repeatedly that power blackouts will soon
be a bad memory, with Mr Castro promising to distribute millions of Chinese
electric stoves to replace old ones based on kerosene and wood.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">In
addition, Cubans are promised improvements in public transport, running at less
than 30 per cent of the 1989 level, medical services, wages and pensions.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><o:p><FONT
size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<H1 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm 3pt"><A name=_Toc101716009><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt"><FONT
size=3>US in new crackdown on exports to Cuba</FONT></SPAN></A><SPAN
style="mso-bookmark: _Toc101716009"></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 24pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></H1>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">By
Edward Alden in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State
w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1:place> </SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Financial
Times, February 23 2005 </SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">The
<st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> administration moved on
Tuesday to disrupt agricultural exports to <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Cuba</st1:country-region>, ruling that the island nation will now have
to pay cash in advance for all purchases in order to comply with <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place>
sanctions law.</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">The
decision marked the latest effort by President George W. Bush to squeeze the
government of Fidel Castro. But it immediately touched off an angry response in
Congress and has set up a fight with the powerful <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place>
agricultural lobby.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">The
Treasury department said rigorous enforcement of the sanctions was part of the
Bush administration's commitment “to helping the freedom-starved people of
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Cuba</st1:country-region></st1:place> live lives free from Castro's
oppression and tyranny”.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">But
Senator Max Baucus, a Montana Democrat who has supported Mr Bush in legislative
fights over taxes and trade, vowed to block any Treasury department nominees who
required Senate confirmation unless the administration relents on the
issue.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">The
ruling, issued by the Treasury department's Office of Foreign Assets Control
(OFAC), which administers US sanctions policies, could shut off US exports that
grew more than 50 per cent last year to reach $380m.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">The
OFAC said the current system, in which <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Cuba</st1:country-region></st1:place> makes payments after receipt of
the goods, was not acceptable and ruled that from now on payments must be
received before the shipments leave US ports.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">US
farm groups said on Tuesday the ruling could immediately halt all exports to
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Cuba</st1:country-region></st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><st1:country-region
w:st="on"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">US</SPAN></st1:country-region><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
rice producers, who saw sales to <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Cuba</st1:country-region></st1:place> last year grow by 500 per cent
to $64m, called the ruling “a blatant and ill-disguised frontal assault on US
farmers and ranchers, who once again are the uncompensated victims of 42 years
of failed foreign policy”.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><st1:country-region
w:st="on"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Cuba</SPAN></st1:country-region><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
is unlikely to agree to pay cash before the goods are shipped from US ports, in
part because of fears of other laws that allow the <st1:country-region
w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> government to seize Cuban property on
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place> soil.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Mr
Baucus and 19 other senators have introduced legislation that would overturn the
OFAC decision.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">In
recent years Congress has been willing to override the administration to permit
some trade with <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Cuba</st1:country-region></st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><o:p><FONT
size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<H1 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm 3pt"><A name=_Toc101716010><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt"><FONT
size=3>Farc poised for new battle in long war</FONT></SPAN></A><SPAN
style="mso-bookmark: _Toc101716010"></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 24pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></H1>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">By
Andy Webb-Vidal </SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Financial
Times, April 10 2005 </SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Rubén
Sánchez, an army corporal, squints at the distant horizon of <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Colombia</st1:country-region></st1:place>'s Andean highlands for any
sign of movement. Clouds swirl over the nearby peaks. The thud of a Black Hawk
helicopter fades into silence.</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">On
patrol in Sumapaz, a bleak, 3,500m-high mountain pass south of Bogotá, the
capital, Cpl Sánchez feels that his part of the war against the rebels from the
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Farc) is being
won.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">“There
was some combat against the Farc last year, but we are consolidating control
over this area now,” says Cpl Sánchez. Farc insurgents built the gravel road
that snakes through the pass on <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Colombia</st1:country-region></st1:place>'s highlands to prepare for a
long-plotted final offensive: the seizure of Bogotá.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Today,
the Farc's 40-year old armed battle to overthrow the sitting government appears
more distant than ever, as President Alvaro Uribe and his US-supported military
engage in their third year of tough security policies. In sub-zero temperatures,
the 1st High Mountain Battalion's 1,400 troops have secured the Sumapaz
guerrilla corridor, one of a series of landmarks in the
counter-insurgency.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">“This
is a strategic point,” says Col Pablo Gómez, the battalion's commander. “We have
to remain here because we are the containing wall against any plans the Farc
bandits have to again launch an offensive to reach the
capital.”<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">A
two-year old nationwide military campaign has forced the Farc into more remote
regions, resulting in a dramatic decrease in kidnappings they fell 49 per cent
in 2004 to 746 a tactic favoured by the guerrillas.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">But
the insurgency by the 15,000-strong Farc, a terrorist group in the eyes of the
<st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> and <st1:place
w:st="on">Europe</st1:place>, is far from over and may be poised to bounce
back.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Farc
guerrillas last week killed 17 soldiers in an ambush in eastern <st1:place
w:st="on">Arauca</st1:place> province. Since the start of this year at least 120
soldiers and civilians have been killed in Farc attacks, raising suggestions
that the guerrillas are preparing a counter-offensive. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">In
February, Raul Reyes, the Farc's second-in-command, said the preceding spate of
attacks was “only the start of what is coming”.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Last
year, while 2,518 members of outlawed groups died in combat, 455 members of the
security forces were killed.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Gen
Hugo Gutiérrez, director of army intelligence, says that the military is on
alert for a potential surge in armed attacks during the months ahead as
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Colombia</st1:country-region></st1:place> approaches elections
scheduled for the first half of next year. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">“Our
analysis suggests that it's possible that the bandits will execute some isolated
terrorist acts as a last desperate effort to demonstrate that they still exist,”
says Gen Gutiérrez. “But it will not be a generalised
offensive.”<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Foreign
observers are less sanguine. Some suspect that the Farc guerrillas will choose
their moment for maximum impact. “The Farc seems to be attempting to conjure up
a spectacular military operation or two,” says a <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place>
consultant familiar with the conflict. “They are not having a lot of success so
far, but it does not keep them from trying and it does not mean that they will
not be successful in the near future.”<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Intelligence
officers warn that the Farc may have dug into its multi-million dollar war chest
to buy “advanced weaponry” such as ground-to-air missiles for deployment in the
near future.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">“Uribe
may have won the short-term, or maybe even the medium-term, part of the
strategy,” says Colonel Joe Nuñez, professor of strategy at the US Army War
College. “The question now is: can this be sustained for the long
haul?”<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><o:p><FONT
size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<H1 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm 3pt"><A name=_Toc101716011><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt"><FONT
size=3>'El Loco' back in </FONT></SPAN></A><FONT size=3><st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on"><SPAN
style="mso-bookmark: _Toc101716011"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt">Ecuador</SPAN></SPAN></st1:country-region></st1:place><SPAN
style="mso-bookmark: _Toc101716011"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt">,
with a promise of revolution</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="mso-bookmark: _Toc101716011"></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 24pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></H1>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">By
Hal Weitzman in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City
w:st="on">Lima</st1:City></st1:place> </SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Financial
Times, April 5 2005 </SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><st1:country-region
w:st="on"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Ecuador</SPAN></st1:country-region><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">'s
fragile political environment appears to be deteriorating following the return
from exile of a former president who promises a “revolution of the poor”
modelled on Hugo Chávez's <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Venezuela</st1:country-region></st1:place>.</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoToc1 style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">
<TABLE class=MsoNormalTable
style="mso-cellspacing: 1.5pt; mso-table-lspace: 1.8pt; mso-table-rspace: 1.8pt; mso-table-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-table-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-table-left: right; mso-table-top: middle; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm"
cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=0 align=right border=0>
<TBODY>
<TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes">
<TD
style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; PADDING-LEFT: 0.75pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; PADDING-TOP: 0.75pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; TEXT-ALIGN: right; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd; mso-element: frame; mso-element-frame-hspace: 1.8pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-left: right; mso-element-top: middle; mso-height-rule: exactly"
align=right><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Declaring
himself “older and crazier than ever”, Abdalá Bucaram, the self-styled “Loco”
(madman) of Ecuadorean politics, returned from <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Panama</st1:country-region> to his home town of <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Guayaquil</st1:City></st1:place> last weekend,
vowing to lead a populist anti-American movement in the Andean
country.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">The
country's political divisions have coalesced around the purging of the Supreme
Court last December, a move widely seen as a “power grab” on the part of
President Lucio Gutiérrez. The <st1:country-region
w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> embassy in <st1:City
w:st="on">Quito</st1:City> told the FT on Tuesday that it was concerned about
the “judicial crisis” in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Ecuador</st1:country-region></st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Mr
Bucaram was cleared to return last week when the court, which has been packed
with Mr Gutiérrez's political allies, cleared him of criminal
charges.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Mr
Bucaram's Roldosista party (PRE) helped prevent Mr Gutiérrez's impeachment by
Congress last November. Their own leader's rehabilitation is widely viewed as
their reward. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">One
of Mr Bucaram's first statements back on Ecuadorean soil was to express sadness
at the death of the Pope, who he said “did not want to die until the leader of
the Ecuadorean people returned to his homeland”.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Mr
Bucaram drew a rally of thousands at the weekend. His return injects fresh
uncertainty into a delicate political situation and forces the opposition to
show its strength.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">In
Pichincha province, which includes the capital <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City
w:st="on">Quito</st1:City></st1:place>, Ramiro González, the prefect, has called
for an indefinite general strike to begin on April 12, with the aim of ousting
Mr Gutiérrez. Walter Spurrier of the Universidad Casa Grande in <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Guayaquil</st1:City></st1:place> said Mr Bucaram's
anti-American rhetoric was both personal and political. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">“In
1997, the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place> accused Bucaram of being corrupt,”
he said. “Bucaram and his allies still feel today that that gave a green light
to his opponents to oust him.”<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">But
Mr Spurrier added that Mr Bucaram was quite capable of changing his views
abruptly from day to day. “For instance, he now says he opposes dollarisation,
but as president he proposed a currency board, pegging the sucre to the
dollar.”<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Mr
Bucaram, who was president for six months in 1996-97, was dismissed by Congress
for “mental incapacity” and allegedly embezzling public funds. He fled to
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Panama</st1:country-region></st1:place>, where for eight years he
continued to lead the PRE in exile. In its rulings last week, the Supreme Court
also enabled Gustavo Noboa, the former president, to return from exile in the
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Dominican
Republic</st1:country-region></st1:place>. Alberto Dahik, the former
vice-president who fled <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Ecuador</st1:country-region></st1:place> at the controls of his own
private aircraft in 1996, has also been allowed to re-enter the country. Mr
Dahik has been living in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Costa Rica</st1:country-region></st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Political
instability has done nothing to improve <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Ecuador</st1:country-region></st1:place>'s reputation among
international investors. Last week the finance ministry called off a
high-profile bond swap, citing unfavourable market
conditions.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Merrill
Lynch on Tuesday lowered its recommendation on <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Ecuador</st1:country-region></st1:place>'s debt from market-weight to
underweight, saying Mr Bucaram's return “may deepen the political crisis to its
low point”.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 7.2pt; mso-para-margin-bottom: .6gd"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">“We
see such confrontations as leaving very tiny chances that Congress will approve
any of the reforms included in the maxi-bill sent by the president a month ago,”
Merrill Lynch added. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><o:p><FONT
size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<H1 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm 3pt"><A name=_Toc101716012></A><st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on"><SPAN
style="mso-bookmark: _Toc101716012"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt">Chile</SPAN></SPAN></st1:country-region></st1:place><SPAN
style="mso-bookmark: _Toc101716012"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 13pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt">
leader aims to woo Chávez over top OAS post</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="mso-bookmark: _Toc101716012"></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 7pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></H1>
<H1 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm 3pt"><A name=_Toc101716013><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">By
Andy Webb-Vidal in </SPAN></A><st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on"><SPAN
style="mso-bookmark: _Toc101716013"><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">Caracas</SPAN></SPAN></st1:place></st1:City><SPAN
style="mso-bookmark: _Toc101716013"><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">
<BR>Published: April 19 2005</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></H1>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Ricardo
Lagos, Chile's president, will have one aim when he meets Hugo Chávez on
Wednesday: to persuade his Venezuelan counterpart not to spoil
<st1:country-region w:st="on">Chile</st1:country-region>'s chance of winning the
top diplomatic post in the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Americas</st1:country-region></st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">The
meeting, due in <st1:City w:st="on">Caracas</st1:City> on Wednesday, will mark a
crucial step in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Chile</st1:country-region></st1:place>'s renewed lobbying effort to
secure its candidate as the next secretary-general of the Organisation of
American States (OAS). <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">José
Miguel Insulza, the Chilean interior minister, tied 17-17 in a vote last week
with Luis Ernesto Derbéz, the Mexican foreign minister, after five rounds of
voting at the OAS's headquarters in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State
w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">The
race for the top post at the OAS, which traditionally has been dominated by the
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place>, is the most hotly contested since
its creation in 1948. Since last week's tie, the Chilean and Mexican candidates
have begun redoubling efforts to win diplomatic support from wavering countries
ahead of a new round of voting on May 2.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">But
Mr Lagos's task in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Venezuela</st1:country-region></st1:place> is an unusual one. While Mr
Chávez has vocally backed the socialist Mr Insulza and helped him win votes
within the Caribbean bloc of nations, analysts say he has polarised the vote in
the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Americas</st1:country-region></st1:place> with his anti-US
stance.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Chile
is concerned that Mr Chávez's overtly fierce rhetoric against the US could
damage Mr Insulza andin fact alienate, rather than secure, crucial
votes.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Mr
Lagos was due to arrive on Tuesday night from <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Brazil</st1:country-region></st1:place>,
which supports the Chilean candidate, and is afterwards scheduled to visit
Colombian president Alvaro Uribe, who backs Mr Derbéz.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">“<st1:City
w:st="on">Lagos</st1:City>'s tour is an effort to show that Insulza is not a
candidate that just applauds Chávez's radicalism,” said Elsa Cardozo, an
international relations analyst in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City
w:st="on">Caracas</st1:City></st1:place>. “Without losing the crucial support
Chávez has delivered, <st1:City w:st="on">Lagos</st1:City> will want to ensure
that <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Venezuela</st1:country-region></st1:place> doesn't spoil the party for
the Chileans.”<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">In
recent weeks, during public appearances Mr Chávez has criticised the
<st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> almost daily for its
supposed interference in <st1:place w:st="on">Latin America</st1:place>. “The
true destabilising factor in this continent has always been the <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place>, the
source of violence and war, with the goal, as ever, of using us as if we were
their colonies,” he said on Monday.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">While
Mr Insulza's chances may improve in the coming days thanks to Mr Lagos's
diplomatic efforts, he still faces a strong challenge. Mr Derbéz, who is from
<st1:country-region w:st="on">Mexico</st1:country-region>'s governing rightwing
National Action party, has the support of the <st1:country-region
w:st="on">US</st1:country-region>, and in turn Central American countries, as
well as <st1:country-region w:st="on">Canada</st1:country-region>,
<st1:country-region w:st="on">Colombia</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Paraguay</st1:country-region> and <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Peru</st1:country-region></st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Venezuela</SPAN></st1:country-region></st1:place><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">
is the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, and speculation has surfaced in
recent days suggesting that Mr Chávez may offer cheap oil to an energy-strapped
Central American country to swing the vote.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">A
victory for Mr Insulza could help Mr Chávez stave off moves against him by the
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place> through the OAS's “democratic
charter”.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Additional
drama was injected into the race for OAS secretary-general by the withdrawal,
three days before the April 11 election, of Francisco Flores, a rightwing former
president of <st1:country-region w:st="on">El Salvador</st1:country-region> and
the preferred <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place> candidate.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<H1 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm 3pt"><A name=_Toc101716014></A><FONT
size=3><st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on"><SPAN
style="mso-bookmark: _Toc101716014"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt">Argentina</SPAN></SPAN></st1:place></st1:country-region><SPAN
style="mso-bookmark: _Toc101716014"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt">
still in hostile territory</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="mso-bookmark: _Toc101716014"></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 24pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></H1>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><FONT size=3>By John
Dizard<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><FONT
size=3>Financial Times, April 15 2005 <o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Argentina</SPAN></st1:country-region></st1:place><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">’s
march to victory over its bondholders is looking more like a walk in a
minefield. The forced exchange offer, sorry, according to Argentina’s lawyers,
“voluntary” exchange offer, has already had its April 1 closing postponed for an
indefinite period. The when-issued price for the new bonds to be offered in the
exchange has already collapsed by 12 per cent in a month; not a good start.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">This
is all due to a clever legal manoeuvre by two investor groups, EM, and NML
Capital, and to <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region></st1:place>’s reaction to their ploy.
EM and NML are attempting to seize about $7bn of the bonds tendered by the
bondholders to <st1:country-region w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region>’s
agent bank, but not yet cancelled by <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region></st1:place> and exchanged for new
bonds. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">If
this were just a one-off play through which a small group of litigious investors
could get their hands on enough assets to gain 100 per cent, rather than 31 per
cent or 32 per cent of their money, then the markets might consider it a
sideshow. However, that’s not likely to be the case. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Argentina</SPAN></st1:country-region></st1:place><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">
and Cleary Gottlieb, its pit-bull-in-pinstripes counsel, have managed so far to
avoid letting substantial assets get seized by bondholders with judgments.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">They’ve
used the special access to the world financial system that a sovereign enjoys to
keep trade flows and payments flowing. The point of the exchange offer was to
give just enough to the country’s bondholders, after just long enough a fight,
to induce governments, courts, and international institutions to once again give
Argentina access to the capital markets. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">For
a moment, it appeared as though it might work. Just after <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region> announced the exchange closed last
month, the when-issued price on the bonds came within a percentage point of the
spread paid by <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Brazil</st1:country-region></st1:place>, which with some difficulty
has kept pro-creditor policies in place. The Argentines thought they were
geniuses. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">However,
as they say, genius is an up market. Coincidentally, the Argentine exchange
offer closed within a week of the peak in the world’s demand for risky credit.
We’re on a downslope in risk appetite now, perhaps for a decade or longer.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">That’s
a problem for <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region></st1:place>. Since the late 2001
default, it’s been growing at an impressive rate. However, that growth was only
possible due to the inventory of capital investments that had been paid for by
the 1990’s debt binge. That headroom of productive capacity is running out. I
thought the shortage of electricity capacity would put a lid on growth starting
next year, or, at the latest, 2007.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Even
I was too optimistic. The 12 per cent (recorded) inflation rate is saying that
the economy is running short of capacity in many places even as unemployment
remains in double digits. Domestic capital markets aren’t able to take up the
slack of financing new investments. With short-term rates (six-month repos) at 8
per cent, local investors are being decapitalised. That would be made worse by
threatened price controls.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">So
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region></st1:place> needs access to
international capital markets. And there it runs into the <st1:place
w:st="on">EMs</st1:place> and NMLs. The litigious hold-outs are identifying tiny
little moments when Argentine assets show up in international banks before the
country and its lawyers whisk them off to the next stop. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">In
the current court fight, the hold-out litigants are claiming that the bonds
tendered to <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region></st1:place>’s agents are the country’s
property. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region></st1:place> says the bonds are still
the bondholders’ property. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region></st1:place> says the bonds need to be
cancelled for the exchange to go forward. The hold-outs point out that
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region></st1:place> never committed itself to
cancellation. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region></st1:place> says there would be no
point to the exchange if the bonds were not to be
cancelled.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">That’s
not exactly true. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region></st1:place> could hold the bonds in
another government pocket. Then it could use the voting rights attached to the
bonds to prevent hold-out bondholders from enforcing their rights as a class.
The debt service would be reduced just as effectively as if the bonds were, in
fact, cancelled. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">The
fight has moved to the US Court of Appeals in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City
w:st="on">Manhattan</st1:City></st1:place>. Those judges will hear arguments on
April 27. A decision will be handed down within a few weeks after that.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">If
the hold-out investors win, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region></st1:place> will keep the appeals
process going for a while longer. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">If
it decides to not go ahead with the deal, it risks more lawsuits from
bondholders who did tender their bonds, and who will want the country to do the
exchange. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">If
the hold-out investors lose, they have a series of back-up legal strategies to
seize Argentine assets that appear, as one of Cleary’s lawyers said in court ,
“just in a nanosecond”. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">In
the meantime, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Argentina</st1:country-region></st1:place>’s capital stock, and
prospects, are running down. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><o:p><FONT
size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<H1 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm 3pt"><A name=_Toc101716015></A><FONT
size=3><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on"><SPAN
style="mso-bookmark: _Toc101716015"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt">Chile</SPAN></SPAN></st1:country-region></st1:place><SPAN
style="mso-bookmark: _Toc101716015"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt">
leader aims to woo Chávez over top OAS post</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></H1>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><FONT size=3>By Andy
Webb-Vidal in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City
w:st="on">Caracas</st1:City></st1:place> <o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><FONT
size=3>Financial Times, April 19 2005 <o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Ricardo
Lagos, Chile's president, will have one aim when he meets Hugo Chávez on
Wednesday: to persuade his Venezuelan counterpart not to spoil
<st1:country-region w:st="on">Chile</st1:country-region>'s chance of winning the
top diplomatic post in the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Americas</st1:country-region></st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">The
meeting, due in <st1:City w:st="on">Caracas</st1:City> on Wednesday, will mark a
crucial step in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Chile</st1:country-region></st1:place>'s renewed lobbying effort to
secure its candidate as the next secretary-general of the Organisation of
American States (OAS). <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">José
Miguel Insulza, the Chilean interior minister, tied 17-17 in a vote last week
with Luis Ernesto Derbéz, the Mexican foreign minister, after five rounds of
voting at the OAS's headquarters in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State
w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">The
race for the top post at the OAS, which traditionally has been dominated by the
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place>, is the most hotly contested since
its creation in 1948. Since last week's tie, the Chilean and Mexican candidates
have begun redoubling efforts to win diplomatic support from wavering countries
ahead of a new round of voting on May 2.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">But
Mr Lagos's task in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Venezuela</st1:country-region></st1:place> is an unusual one. While Mr
Chávez has vocally backed the socialist Mr Insulza and helped him win votes
within the Caribbean bloc of nations, analysts say he has polarised the vote in
the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Americas</st1:country-region></st1:place> with his anti-US
stance.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Chile
is concerned that Mr Chávez's overtly fierce rhetoric against the US could
damage Mr Insulza andin fact alienate, rather than secure, crucial
votes.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Mr
Lagos was due to arrive on Tuesday night from <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Brazil</st1:country-region></st1:place>,
which supports the Chilean candidate, and is afterwards scheduled to visit
Colombian president Alvaro Uribe, who backs Mr Derbéz.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">“<st1:City
w:st="on">Lagos</st1:City>'s tour is an effort to show that Insulza is not a
candidate that just applauds Chávez's radicalism,” said Elsa Cardozo, an
international relations analyst in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City
w:st="on">Caracas</st1:City></st1:place>. “Without losing the crucial support
Chávez has delivered, <st1:City w:st="on">Lagos</st1:City> will want to ensure
that <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Venezuela</st1:country-region></st1:place> doesn't spoil the party for
the Chileans.”<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">In
recent weeks, during public appearances Mr Chávez has criticised the
<st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> almost daily for its
supposed interference in <st1:place w:st="on">Latin America</st1:place>. “The
true destabilising factor in this continent has always been the <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place>, the
source of violence and war, with the goal, as ever, of using us as if we were
their colonies,” he said on Monday.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">While
Mr Insulza's chances may improve in the coming days thanks to Mr Lagos's
diplomatic efforts, he still faces a strong challenge. Mr Derbéz, who is from
<st1:country-region w:st="on">Mexico</st1:country-region>'s governing rightwing
National Action party, has the support of the <st1:country-region
w:st="on">US</st1:country-region>, and in turn Central American countries, as
well as <st1:country-region w:st="on">Canada</st1:country-region>,
<st1:country-region w:st="on">Colombia</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Paraguay</st1:country-region> and <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Peru</st1:country-region></st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Venezuela</SPAN></st1:country-region></st1:place><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">
is the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, and speculation has surfaced in
recent days suggesting that Mr Chávez may offer cheap oil to an energy-strapped
Central American country to swing the vote.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">A
victory for Mr Insulza could help Mr Chávez stave off moves against him by the
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place> through the OAS's “democratic
charter”.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Additional
drama was injected into the race for OAS secretary-general by the withdrawal,
three days before the April 11 election, of Francisco Flores, a rightwing former
president of <st1:country-region w:st="on">El Salvador</st1:country-region> and
the preferred <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place> candidate.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><o:p><FONT
size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<H1 style="MARGIN: 12pt 0cm 3pt"><A name=_Toc101716016><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt"><FONT
size=3>Castro seeks justice over fugitive bomber</FONT></SPAN></A><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></H1>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><FONT size=3>By Marc
Frank in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Havana</st1:City></st1:place>
<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><FONT
size=3>Financial Times, April 18 2005 <o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><FONT size=3>Fabio Di
Celmo was visiting <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Havana</st1:place></st1:City>'s Copacabana de Miramar hotel in
September 1997 when a bomb killed the Italian national and wounded several
others. The explosion was one in a string of attacks on Cuban hotels and
restaurants that year.<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><FONT size=3>For
eight nights running this month, Giustino Di Celmo Fabio's elderly father and
other victims' distraught relatives have provided a nightly backdrop for
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Fidel Castro</st1:City>,
<st1:country-region w:st="on">Cuba</st1:country-region></st1:place>'s president,
to denounce Luis Posada Carriles.<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><FONT size=3>Mr
Posada, a self-described anti-communist warrior, is unrepentant. In 1998 he told
an interviewer that the younger Mr Di Celmo “was in the wrong place at the wrong
time” and that “my conscience is clear”. More importantly, Mr Posada is now on
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> soil.<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><FONT size=3>Mr
Castro is keen to create a distraction from the United Nations' Human Rights
Commission vote last week to keep <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Cuba</st1:place></st1:country-region> under scrutiny. News of Mr
Posada's request this month for political asylum in the <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> spurred Mr
Castro to take to the airwaves.<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><FONT size=3>In the
broadcasts, Mr Castro has angrily described how “Latin America's bin Laden”
slipped into the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> by sea. Mr Castro has even
publicly named the Miami-registered vessel and some of the crew involved.
<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><FONT size=3>The
president has used the incident to expose a “terrorist structure” in <st1:State
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Florida</st1:place></st1:State> that includes Mr
Posada. Mr Castro promises to launch a campaign for justice akin to his
successful effort to bring Elían González, the Cuban child castaway, home from
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Miami</st1:place></st1:City> in
2000.<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><FONT size=3>Until
last August, Mr Posada and three Cuban associates were in prison in
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Panama</st1:place></st1:country-region>, serving eight-year sentences
for plotting to kill Mr Castro during a 2000 visit. Then the group was pardoned
by <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Mireya Moscoso</st1:City>,
<st1:country-region w:st="on">Panama</st1:country-region></st1:place>'s outgoing
president. The three associates flew directly to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Miami</st1:place></st1:City> for a hero's welcome. Mr Posada
disappeared, turning up in <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Florida</st1:place></st1:State> in March.<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><FONT size=3>Mr
Posada, who was said to have been trained in explosives by the Central
Intelligence Agency, is also wanted in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Venezuela</st1:place></st1:country-region>, where he escaped in 1985
amid legal wrangling over his role in the 1976 bombing of a Cuban airliner that
killed 76 people. Mr Posada turned up in <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">El Salvador</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
where the Reagan administration hired him to run arms to the Nicaraguan contras.
Since the 1980s and until his arrest in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Panama</st1:place></st1:country-region> in 2000, Mr Posada's
whereabouts and activities were less clear. He claims to have masterminded
attacks on Cuban civilian, commercial and diplomatic targets in the name of
anti-communism and toppling Mr Castro.<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><FONT size=3>In his
speeches, Mr Castro repeatedly evokes the position of President George W. Bush
that those harbouring terrorists are as guilty as the terrorists
themselves.<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB"><FONT size=3>“We are
ready to help [the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> government] do what is right,” Mr
Castro said on Sunday night, comparing the situation to the El´an González case.
“[But] if they do what we expect, the political cost will be much
greater.”<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Perpetua"><o:p><FONT size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
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size=2></FONT></SPAN></SPAN> </P></BODY></HTML>
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